Alan Simpson told Fareed Zakaria that any one who thinks that the current deficit problem can be solved without raising taxes (in some form — either directly or indirectly through inflation and/or high interest rates) has rocks instead of brains. I like the salty rhetoric. But is it true? I suppose it depends on beliefs about the short and long run.
By and large most economists would believe that economies where the government has a light touch — creating and protecting basic institutions that promote economic freedom — are more likely to generate prosperity. Low taxes are part of this mix since taxes are how governments extract rents from creative individuals. Of course there is an optimum amount of taxation necessary to protect the aforesaid institutions. But this is a long term view. As of now we have increasingly an extractive political economy. Rising inequality in the US does not help. Some inequality is of course good since it provides an incentive to work (as a recent book by a Bain Capital colleague of Mitt Romney’s rightly claims). But as inequality increases it enables a class of wealthy individuals to capture the legislative process to their favor. This is a fundamentally anti capitalist process which starts a vicious cycle that reinforces both extractive political and extractive economic institutions (Acemoglu and Robinson make this case in their recent book “Why Nations Fail”). At any rate, the rising deficit also extracts wealth from the economy and the ROI on this deficit spending is at best unclear. But taxation is an extractive process as well. One obvious solution is to get rid of all transfers (social security, medicare, etc.) and gut military spending. But this appears to be politically unfeasible. Another solution is to raise tax REVENUES by simplifying the tax code and cut spending at the same time. This would reduce the power of extractive economic institutions. This is effectively the Bowles Simpson approach and the approach that President Obama claims as his own. Then there is the Mitt Romney approach — cut taxes on his first day in office and do very little for spending. Cutting taxes may appear to be a blow against extractive economic institutions. But runaway spending will continue. Remember that even Paul Ryan’s so called revolutionary plan merely limits the GROWTH of spending! Thus the deficit may be expected to rise. In other words the rise of extractive institutions will in fact be abetted by tax cuts! Current, stated, Republican policy may appear to disfavor extractive political institutions (the tax cuts) but in reality will increase their power (by doing very little for the deficit). Why?
One answer may be that the Republican party has been captured by wealthy interests who wish to capture the legislative process and jumpstart a system of extractive political and economic institutions. In other words, its not a question of rocks instead of brains. This is very intelligent rent seeking at work. I think I disagree with Mr. Simpson. Republicans are not stupid.